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Kristin Bentz Defends Her Bearish (and Wrong) Call on Abercrombie

Posted Nov 18, 2009 09:00am EST by Peter Gorenstein in Investing

For months Kristin Bentz of the Talented Blonde blog has been telling the Tech Ticker audience that Abercrombie & Fitch was a stock headed for disaster. And for months, the stock has continued to climb to a series of new 52-week highs.

Last week, the company reported dismal third-quarter numbers. Earnings fell 39% and same-store sales plummeted 22%.

Guess what?

The stock rose because those lousy numbers beat even lousier expectations set by Wall Street analysts.

So is Bentz finally willing to admit defeat? No way.

Bentz believes short covering is responsible for some of the rally.  At 14% of shares outstanding, short interest in the stock is very high, so she very well might be right on that point. Unfortunately, for her, being "right" has been a money-losing proposition.

On a positive note, Bentz's view that Aeropostale is stealing market share is gaining credibility; Abercrombie's management team did admit to this concern on last week's earnings call.

The Abercrombie bulls are likely to experience a "bout of indigestion" after the holiday shopping season, Bentz says, suggesting investors are better off in the aforementioned Aeropostale, Urban Outfitters and True Religion.

Disclosure: Bentz has no positions in stocks mentioned.

 

63 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:05AM EST

Whoa! She does look talented. Oh yeah shake your head around some more. MMM

donfurio
donfurio - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:12AM EST

I love when idiots like this are wrong and refuse to admit it. Are we sure she's not Roubini's mistress?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:13AM EST

WALL STREET NEEDS MORE ENFORCED TRANSPARENCY

Michael
Michael - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:14AM EST

TT is nothing more than entertainment. Hell, the respondents are much as an expert as what is being presented. Who cares........

Andrew B
Andrew B - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:26AM EST

"Talented Blonde Blog" - bwahahahahaha, ease up a bit on the hubris Kristin. But she is pretty hot in those pics on her website.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:29AM EST

I don't invest based on what a stock might do. No one can predict what a stock might do. My trading platform shows me when a stock goes from bearish to bullish, it's not based on speculation. I haven't read an analyst report in years, they're useless.

tom L
tom L - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:37AM EST

Unless 50% probablility is a satisfactory outcome for you, prediction in conditions like these are a fool's game. Now even the home builders are praying for more govamint intervention to keep this sorry mess afloat.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:37AM EST

A greeter at Wal Mart has more value to society than a sell side stock analyst. "She has no position in the stocks she mentioned" Why not? She doesn't trust her own analysis.

chubby
chubby - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:37AM EST

"Short covering" is the favorite excuse of analysts who get trampled in this up-up-up market. ANF looks like a woofer to me, too, but this market is not interested in classic fundamentals. They just don't apply when you're bouncing off a 40% drop.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:38AM EST

If you go back to her previous calls on Yahoo about ANF and ARO, she said that ARO would take permananent market share from ANF and she was right... I think she is on this show because she has been right a lot more often than wrong...I made a fortune last year on her early call on The Buckle and I think that is one that put her on the scene with these Yahoo guys..

JCInter
JCInter - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:41AM EST

Talented blonde or dumb blonde, she sure is a sexy blonde. Good for morning wake up scene.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:42AM EST

I wait for a stock to make it's move and then I make mine. It's the only logical way to trade. A recent study shows analyst are only right 35% of the time. In other words, you'll can make more money by throwing darts at stocks than listening to analysts. They're an integral part of the pump and dump scheme perpetuated by Wall Street.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:47AM EST

Uh oh, my stock filter alerted me to a trend reversal on ticker DCP at the market open. How's that for timing a trend reversal after a huge bearish dip? I challenge you, Bentz, to do better.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:55AM EST

You know the economy is in big trouble when Gates and Buffet have to go out and sell America. These are two of the greediest Americans and Gates is certainly of the Dark side of ethics. Give me a break a big break is in the cards with all the new leverage in our system. We should have become more conservative but we did just the opposite as a Nation we put trillions more down on bad bets. As the housing markets synch further as the oil companies and banks squeeze harder on the consumer more bankruptcies are in the cards for the Average american. We are sinking as a Nation not tredding water at all. You can not buy a recover with Tax payer funds.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 09:55AM EST

You know the economy is in big trouble when Gates and Buffet have to go out and sell America. These are two of the greediest Americans and Gates is certainly of the Dark side of ethics. Give me a break a big break is in the cards with all the new leverage in our system. We should have become more conservative but we did just the opposite as a Nation we put trillions more down on bad bets. As the housing markets synch further as the oil companies and banks squeeze harder on the consumer more bankruptcies are in the cards for the Average american. We are sinking as a Nation not tredding water at all. You can not buy a recover with Tax payer funds.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 10:03AM EST

TT missed a great opportunity to get good upskirt shots of Kristen Benz. I thought that why they invited her on the gloom and doom broadcast. Nothing credible coming out of her mouth. Speaking of delicious lips... Ms Benz...She's hot! We need Lady Gaga on TT.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 10:03AM EST

I bought in DCP at the market open after my filter alerted me to a trend reversal after a bearish dip. I got it at about $15.45 average. It showed a little weakish at 0944 but bounced off the 6 day exponential average and is making another move up. It looks like a good strong bounce off the low. If it breaks back down below the 50 day, I'm out but I predict it will make it to at least 10% today. Probably make about 7% on it, which is a lot of money for me because I'm rich. I challenge you, Bentz, to do better.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday November 18, 2009 10:03AM EST

donfurio ---- what a lame ass response. They were crap numbers and people bought into the lame ass numbers. This market is kept floating on people buying stocks because of the dollar policy and interest rates. There is no place to put money except the market and people are buying the hype .... WHY???? The market is the only game in town.... bottom line.... It's not that you guys are geniuses, you just can't help but lose.... I saw the same thing in 1999-2000.... Kept buying and doubling up on CISCO .... it was almost criminal the way the pumpers pushed that market .... every split I got, I doubled up ... and I am seeing the same thing happen ... and we all know the result ....

PeaceMaker
PeaceMaker - Wednesday November 18, 2009 10:06AM EST

I don't think this story was news worthy. This chick knows a few things, but they couldn't find anyone/anything better ? She looks like Erin Andrews in five or seven years. Marketing skank. Has anyone noticed how 99% of Yahoo's content comes from like three sources ? Microsoft has definitely shown their fearless visionary side with their daring moves re-inventing Microsoft.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 18, 2009 10:06AM EST

Uh oh, received another alert on ISIS about 10 minutes ago. It looks like a little weak rally. I think I'll pass on it.

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